Predictors of Commercial Real Estate Development

By: Andrew G. Mueller and Dr. Glenn R. Mueller, University of Denver

Release Date: January 2009

The research project empirically investigated the macroeconomic indicators that drive new development of commercial real estate to determine whether the timing of new commercial development is linked to certain economic drivers having a greater effect on the office, industrial, retail and multi-family property types. Economic determinants of development for each property type at the national and MSA level are discussed along with practical approaches on how to use the research findings. These indicators will help with forecasting: future demand for commercial real estate space and leasing; competition in specific markets and across property types; and more accurate feasibility studies for future projects.