The NAIOP Research Foundation has released a new report that analyzes economic, capital markets and real estate market data to provide commercial real estate (CRE) practitioners with insight into the factors shaping the availability and price of debt and equity financing for office, industrial, retail and multifamily investment and development.

“U.S. Capital Markets Report, H2 2025” draws from historical data provided by CoStar Group and other publicly available sources to examine trends in transactions, development and loan originations. It identifies the largest developers and transactions by property type and includes the largest transactions by dollar value for office, industrial, retail and multifamily.

Key findings include:

• Lending and transaction volumes are growing across property types, and valuations have largely stabilized.
• Banks have increased lending to commercial properties while conduit lenders have stepped back. Collectively, federal agencies, government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) investors remain top buyers of loans to multifamily real estate.
• Private buyers dominate overall purchasing activity, with institutional investors focused on industrial and multifamily properties.
• Distress is concentrated in investment-grade properties and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) loans.
• Construction activity has moderated in industrial and multifamily sectors, and office development continues to contract.

U.S. CRE markets entered 2026 in a transitional phase marked by improving liquidity, moderating inflation and persistent rate-driven volatility. According to the report, the rapid repricing cycle triggered by aggressive monetary tightening appears largely complete, but a valuation recovery remains sensitive to long-term interest rate movements and capital market conditions.

“This analysis provides our members with the insights they need to navigate shifting capital markets and position their projects for long-term success,” said Marc Selvitelli, CAE, president and CEO of NAIOP. “This report ensures they are equipped to make informed, strategic decisions as market conditions evolve.”

The report is authored by Will McIntosh, Ph.D., CEO, ArcBridge Research Group, LLC, and Shawn Moura, Ph.D., executive director, NAIOP Research Foundation. Most CRE market data in the report are current as of the second half of 2025. The report will be published biannually; the next report will be released after the conclusion of the first half of 2026.