A new NAIOP Research Foundation report by Maria Sicola, Charles Warren, Ph.D., and Megan Weiner builds on last year’s report on market tier and ranking systems by describing a two-dimensional approach to evaluating and comparing commercial real estate markets. The report examines 15 years of market data to test multiple two-dimensional models for evaluating the 50 largest industrial and office markets in the United States.
Demand for industrial real estate continues to be strong as the long-term trend toward e-commerce (and away from in-store sales) continues with no end in sight. With nearly 100 million new square feet delivered nationally since the beginning of the year, 450 million square feet currently under construction and another 450 million planned, the demand for industrial real estate still outpaces supply.
Increasing COVID-19 vaccination rates and strong economic growth will help demand for office space rebound, with a return to positive net absorption forecast for the fourth quarter of 2021. Quarterly net absorption in 2022 is forecast to average 11.7 million square feet, in line with the 2015-2019 quarterly average of 11.6 million square feet.