Sound Bites from NAIOP’s I.CON Conferences

Fall 2016

Sound Bites From NAIOP’s I.CON: Impact Projects, April 5-6, 2016, in Dallas:

Investors from around the world will continue to pile into CRE. They can trust it. It is straightforward. There are no chimeras.... There simply is no other investment that delivers steady returns right now."  Mark Dotzour, Ph.D., real estate economist

Logistics real estate is going to be a wild ride for the next five years, driven by cross-border [commerce], ‘get local’ and omnichannel. I recommend you hang on to your hats. James Tompkins, Ph.D., CEO, Tompkins International

Sound Bites From NAIOP’s I.CON: Trends and Forecasts, June 9-10, 2016, in Jersey City, New Jersey:

We’ve all heard of 3D printing. Soon we will have 4D printing. In 4D printing, the material will come out of the printer as one thing, but at a future date it will automatically transform itself into something different. Geoffrey Kasselman, SIOR, executive managing director and national industrial practice leader, Newmark Grubb Knight Frank

We are seeing users pay higher rents to save money on the supply chain, people and transportation because, at some level, the rent number becomes small compared to the transportation number and the labor number. Take the New York area, for example; if you are located out on the I-81 corridor [in Pennsylvania], there is plenty of land and plenty of buildings, but it is a long drive to Manhattan to deliver goods and services every day if that is where your customers are. That is why you are seeing the infill areas here command a higher rental number. Jay Olshonsky, FRICS, SIOR, president, NAI Global

We have almost forgotten about [the cost of] oil. This is something that is totally different from prior cycles. There are new sources of oil in this country. Remember 2008, when it was $4.85 for [a gallon of] diesel? Everyone was redoing their networks. Now, oil is almost an afterthought. Oil is now less than 20 percent of the equation, and that is allowing people to build out networks with no concern for transportation costs. John Morris, executive managing director, logistics, and industrial services lead for the Americas, Cushman & Wakefield

The expectations about technology for millennials are highly elevated compared to the last generation. There is the going-in expectation that everyone is competent with the general forms of technology — email, cell phones, etc. — and must be reachable on them. There is also the belief that new technologies should be incorporated as soon as they are useful and applicable. Being a millennial is more of a mindset than an actual age range. It [means] using the approach that you take what is useful and applicable to you and utilize it as quickly as possible. David Greek, development and acquisitions, F. Greek Development

With cap rates as compressed as they are at historical lows, a lot of people are looking for alternatives. Some are going into secondary and tertiary cities like Reno, Salt Lake City and Memphis to get a better yield. Some are doing development and taking slightly more risk, but building the type of product they want to own long term. Some are buying A product in B markets; some are buying B product in A markets. Then there is ‘flex,’ the four-letter word that a lot of people have banished [from their vocabulary] forever. There is not much flex being developed, but even if you sell it at the same cap rate that you buy it, you are getting really good cash flow with today’s yields. So some people are starting to look at flex. Rusty Tamlyn, SIOR, senior managing director, HFF

We are still in the early part of the game when it comes to e-commerce, especially in the U.S., but it is clearly here to stay. Looking at the big million-square-foot Amazon buildings, if they are properly located, they will work for anyone. You cannot go wrong with this type of building if it is properly built and in the right place.” John Thomas, senior managing director, CBRE Global Investors

Amazon is a logistics company with a little, bitty retail business on the side. Ben Conwell, senior managing director and practice leader for e-commerce and electronic fulfillment, Cushman & Wakefield, and former director of North American real estate for Amazon