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Planning For 2065: 5 Demographic Trends That Will Change CRE

Bisnow article previews a keynote session at CRE.Converge 2019, October 14-16 in Los Angeles

CRE.Converge 2019While investors and developers may only look toward the next five or 10 years, others look further ahead – a lot further. CRE.Converge 2019 keynote speaker Richard Fry with the Pew Research Center shared his insights in an exclusive interview with Bisnow.

Fry will be speaking about top demographic trends changing CRE and more at the conference alongside Marcus & Millichap’s Hessam Nadji. Read an excerpt of the article below and register today for CRE.Converge 2019, October 14-16 in Los Angeles.

The article reads, in part:

As the American population shifts, grows and spends, the real estate industry needs the most accurate and up-to-date information to make the right choices and find the best deals. Bisnow spoke with Fry to get his list of the most important demographic trends affecting real estate today and hear about the cities and assets where smart investors are putting their dollars.

1. Immigration
As Americans have fewer children, the nation will become increasingly dependent on immigration for its population growth.
In 2015, there were around 324 million Americans. Taking middling, reasonable assumptions about immigration — 1 million immigrants per year — the American population should grow to 441 million by 2065.

“Now let’s suppose we switch off immigration,” Fry said. “By 2065, we would only have 338 million Americans. Without immigration, there’s very, very little population growth at all.”

2. Increasing Household Size
Throughout the 20th century, American households shrank in size, as more young adults and their aging parents alike had the means to live on their own with each successive generation. Household size hit a new low right before the mortgage crisis, when it was easy to fund a home with two occupants, or even one.

“When the foreclosure crisis hit, people started doubling up,” Fry said. “Household size started growing for the first time in a hundred years, and even as we recovered, it didn’t stop growing.”

3. Racial And Ethnic Diversification
Right now, the U.S. is 60% non-Hispanic white, but sometime in the 2040s, Fry expects that white Americans will be in the minority. Young white Americans aren’t replacing themselves by having children, while other groups are

4. Flight Toward Cities
Americans are leaving rural areas behind in favor of cities. Young, educated millennials in particular are moving downtown, a shift that Fry said has revitalized many of the urban centers that suffered during the latter half of the 20th century as manufacturing jobs moved abroad and white families fled to the suburbs.

5. Postponing Children
Young adults aren’t settling down and having children at nearly the same rate they used to. A third of Americans between 18 and 29 are living with their parents, whether they have children or not.

“It’s not that they won’t ever have children, but they’re delaying household formation,” Fry said. “It’s changing the housing units they want.”

Read the full article on Bisnow